On the Rivet

A look at who's riding hard this week.

No matter how much Gregario complains that Amstel Gold takes place in Limburg and not the Ardennes, in the cycling world this race marks the beginning of the Ardennes spring classics.  It is true we are not in Belgium, but rather in the Netherlands, or is it Holland? These people are Dutch, right?  Flemish, Waloonian, Limburger; French, Belgian, Dutch? I’m still trying to sort it out.  Not to mention the homeland of our beloved Schleck brothers, the Grand Duche’ of Luxembourg.  They aren’t ruled by a president, not even a king, but the Grand Duke.  Grand Douche’, so when Andy is getting his Mussette from his Luxemburger compatriots you could say he was getting his Douche’ Bag.  More on Luxembourg to come later this season, but for now let’s get back to Holland.  So, people who speak Dutch live in Holland…I mean the Netherlands...or South Africa… or Aruba.  Benelux, The Low Countries, for a place the size of Minnesota this region has too many names.

Enough of that.  What we do know is that the Amstel Gold race is an exciting 250 kilometer race with tons of climbs.  Not the strong man hills of Flanders, but real climbs, 31  in total, some as long as 2 and a half miles.  This is a race for the climbers.  Maybe not the pure, mountain goat, polka dot jersey kind of climbers, but climbers nonetheless.  Punchy climbers have done well here in recent years but more of  GC kind of rider can prevail here as well going a few hills from the end.  So who do we have racing?  Well just about everybody it seems.  

Amstel Gold Race

This may be hubris on my part, but Team Wiskota Dynamic is the Wiskota Fantasy league’s odds on favorite for the Amstel Gold race this Sunday.  Damiano Cunego has won here before.  He doesn’t have the form of 2008, but he has looked strong. He finished 5^th in the tour of the Basque country with a strong TT, which is always a sign of good form.  Look for Il Piccolo Principe to have a big week (see below).  Peter Sagan is popping up on all kinds of favorites lists.  An uphill sprint finish suits him.  He had a hard time here last year, but so far this year he is showing that he can hang in the longer classics.  Alejandro Valverde has podiumed here before, but never really targeted Amstel.  This year Balaverde is pissed and the Green Bullet is looking to win everything he enters.  I expect a high finish.  Last, but certainly not least, last year’s runner up and puncheur premier, Joaquim Rodriguez enters the Ardennes season as a favorite in all three races.  Team Wiskota Dynamic may not have the most riders come Sunday, but they will have the best riders.  Podium sweep? Let me know what you think.

Picking the second favorite for Amstel should not be this hard, however, questionable form and the muddled goals and expectations of the super teams make it a bit trickier.  Having said that, Gilbert will be a favorite until proven otherwise.  That puts Greg’s team in a pretty good spot.  We all know what the first overall pick can do.  Gilbert says he has lost his form and should not be considered a favorite.  Remember my Kaiser Sose prediction?  I am still waiting to count him out myself.  As for Greg’s other prospects, I would have to say Nibali has looked the best thus far.  He should be riding for Sagan but who knows.  Scarponi likes the climbs and has been strong in stage races thus far.  Bauke Mollema made me eat a bit of crow last week earning a 3^rd place finish in Basque country.   Voekler dominated on Wednesday.  Too bad it’s not worth any points.  He will be satisfied to ride this one out, or will he? I am actually the most intrigued by Chris Horner.  More of a long climber, but he has top ten finishes here before.  I picked him to do well here last year and then he sat it out.  I predict it will either be a big day for Greg or a huge disappointment.

Team Volpe brings four riders to the start line this Sunday.  Boonen was thinking about it, but fortunately for the rest of us he has decided to rest.  Cadel Evans is not known as a classics man. However, if we think back to the critiques of pre-Tour de France winning Cadel Evans, many said he should focus on winning the monuments.  I saw him blow past Contador in Fleche Walloon a few years back and I have to admit I kind of thought the same thing.  Evans may be Volpe’s only rider that could compete in a punchy finish.  He is supposed to be riding for Gilbert, but if Gilbert falters will Evans jump?  This will be the third or fourth week in a row that I have mentioned Boassen Hagen as a favorite.  The Ardennes seem a little more his style, but once again, does anybody really know what his style is?  Volpe’s team is rounded out by Dan Martin and Van den Broeck.  Either one of these riders is capable of a high finish.  I expect someone form Volpe to try an early move, but perhaps they will wait and try their luck on the Cauberg.   

Mike has a rider that I like a lot during this season, one Sammy Sanchez. High placings in the past, good form (see tour of Basque) and a punchy kick when needed Sammy is a favorite to podium.   Robert Gesink has stated that he has been sleeping on the Cauberg this week, looking to become one with the finishing and often decisive climb.  Riders from the Netherlands only really get one chance for hometown glory and that happens this Sunday.  A top ten last year makes Gesink a favorite to repeat that result.  Frank Schleck won this race in 2006 going on a break.  I don’t see a break winning this year, but he must still be mentioned.  I have Mike ranked as the 4^th best team in the race, but like I said the rankings are not as clear as they have been in the past.  Mike’s team could easily be ranked right up there with Greg and Patrick.

Bill the Neo Pro brings one lonely rider to the race, Andy Schleck.  Not the favorite, but he could give it a go.  He is looking to peak next week at Liege, but I expect Andy to try to get away in a break.  He should work for his brother, Horner or even Ben Hermanns, but he won’t.  He will try to go alone and will fail.  Yet, it must be said he probably has the best chance to win in a break out of any rider.  Still that is a very slim chance.

Wiskota Fantasy podium:

Rodriguez, Valverde, Sanchez

Spoilers:

One big one: Simon Gerrans

Giro Del Trentino

I must mention the Giro Trentino, as it starts Tuesday.  Somehow Greg weaseled this race on to the calendar.  No wonder he drafted so many Italians.  In fairness this is a 2.HC  Euro tour event and in the past it has been a very important race.  However, it is placed right in the middle of Ardennes week and thus not a lot of our riders are going to be there.  A team time trial and then three mountain top finishes.  In theory that could be fun.  Too bad we only have two riders there.

Update: Cunego has been added to the startlist.  This is now a cool race.
Update: Scarponi has been added to the startlist.  He is an instant favorite for Greg's team.

With only three Wiskota Fantasy cyclists competing in this event and those three being the biggest names in the race we don’t have a lot to talk about.  Greg is bringing the biggest toughest Italian he’s got to Trentino, Ivan “my sister is hot” Basso.  I should be talking about how Basso is the consummate professional and that he won this race in 2009.  But all I can think of is watching him fall off the back in every race he has entered this year.  I suppose they will say he is building his form for The Giro, but so far he has been embarrassing.  I still have to say that he has a chance and sometimes these veterans seem to know what they are doing more than I can tell.

Bill the Neo Pro is in need of some points.  When he has riders in a race he gets points, however too many of his riders are seemingly saving themselves for the Grand Tours.  Well, I have to say Bill’s 10^th round pick of Roman Kreuziger is looking better and better every race.  Kreuziger is coming in as the 17^th ranked UCI rider and he could pick up some ever valuable non UCI world tour points next week.  If his team has a good team time trial I expect Kreuziger to hang with the best on the climbs and perhaps podium or at least pick up a few top ten points. 

I was a bit upset about including this race on the Wiskota fantasy calendar.  That was until this morning when I saw a change in the startlist.  Three time Giro del Trentino winner and Team Wiskota Dynamic climber extraordinaire Damiano Cunego will be riding next week.  Crazy week for the little prince, Amstel Gold Sunday (which he has won before, see above), Giro Del Trentino Tuesday through Friday ( did I mention he was a three time winner?) and Liege-Bastogne-Liege (which he has podiumed at) next Sunday.  Possible big points week for my most apprehensive of draft picks.  If it wasn’t for that nickname…shit, if he gets me 200 points this week he can call himself whatever he wants.

Wiskota Fantasy Podium:

Cunego, Kreuziger, Basso

Spoilers:

Rolland, Serpa, Gadret, Rory Sutherland (that might be cool)