Friday, March 2, 2012

On the Rivet


A preview of who's racing hard this weekend.

There should be lots of action this weekend as the Wiskota Fantasy League has two races on the docket; the one day Strade Bianchi on Saturday and the start of Paris-Nice on Sunday.  We all have several riders lining up this weekend as some of the big names in cycling look to stretch their legs for the first time this year.
Strade Bianchi:
The Strade is only a few years old yet it is quickly becoming one of the coolest races of the early season.  It is only a 1.1 ranking on the euro tour and thus is not worth as many points.  The roads are too small to handle a full field and thus many big name teams won’t even be there.  So why do we love this race so much?  Why have we gone out of our way to include it in our season?  Is it because Patrick rides a Bianchi?  Is it because Luke has been to Sienna?  Is it because Greg can look at the white gravel roads on Google Earth?  All of these things play a part, but one thing is for certain.  Anyone who saw the rain drenched, mud soaked, stage 7 from the 2010 Giro knows just how cool this race could be.  Well, enough reminiscing, I’ll leave that up to staff writer Patrick.  We want to know who’s gonna win this thing.
Greg: Well here we go; Gilbert won this race last year igniting a super human season.  It fits his riding style with a climb into Sienna for the finish.  I expect a mid-sized group making it to the foot of Sienna together.  If Gilbert is there he will be hard to beat.  This is an Italian race, so we must watch out for Gregario’s team.  Nibali has shown some early season form on Green Mountain at the tour of Oman.  More of a punchy finish with some room for a sprint, not Nibali’s forte, but I see him making the breakaway.  Greg should get on the board for the first time Saturday.  About time.
Patrick: Finally, Patrick gets to see his first round pick in action.  Cadel Evans was the one who made the 2010 Giro stage so memorable.  This is his kind of route.  One of the best bike handlers around with a great uphill burst, Evans could podium.  The question is does he even want to?  Fabulous Fabian Cancellara will also make his debut for team Volpe, or whatever Patrick wants his team to be named (he won’t comment on the blog).  Cancellara can make any breakaway he wants to.  I don’t see the finish suiting him, but you never know.  Besides you don’t have to be the most explosive climber if everyone else is five minute behind you.  Oh yeah, did I mention he won this race in 2008.
Luke: It’s a one man show for my team.  Luckily I have the strongest man in the race.  The fourth round phenom Peter Sagan will make his debut for Team Wiskota Dynamic p/b Lanterne Rouge.  If he and Nibali make the break I expect a win.  The key for Sagan is that just after the punchy climb it levels of.  If Sagan can get there he will take anyone of the other contenders in a sprint.
Mike: Sorry Mikey, I wish I had something better to say about your chances in this race, but I don’t.  I would be surprised if Millar was able to get some points her.  On the other hand, anyone who makes the break will probably get some points.  Otherwise, maybe Mike should just focus on Sunday.
Bill: The neo pro makes his debut in the Wiskota Fantasy League as Roman Kreuziger takes the line Saturday.  I can see this race being a good one for the Roman Crucifier (yup, that’s what his name means).  He will be a protected rider, but so will his teammate Maxim Iglinskiy who won this race in 2010.  They could both make the break and then Bill would have a chance to crack the leader board for the first time this year.  My guess though is that he will have to wait until Sunday.
Wiskota Fantasy Podium: Gilbert, Sagan, Cancellera
Spoiler: Van Avermat, Ballan, Pozzato, Visconti

Paris-Nice:
The race to the sun is awesome, that’s all there is too it.  We wait and wait for the big names to line up for a stage race and finally it comes in Paris-Nice.  We have a lot of GC contenders as 100 points is on the line.  But also, stage win points will be a factor with 6,4 and 2 points going to the stage podium.  Opening and closing TTs will probably decide this race, but there are a few serious climbs along the way.  And don’t forget, that final day TT is 9k straight up a mountain!
Greg: Forsa comes in with the most riders: Basso, Mollema, L.L. Sanchez and Voekler.  Basso is not known for doing well at Paris Nice as he usually is focused on races further down the colander.  Liquigas is bringing a supportive squad and Basso is a good climber.  Maybe this is the year he gives it a go.  I say doubtful.  Bauke does well at Paris Nice coming in 10th last year.  The climbs will be good for him, time trials is a question mark.  Can he ride for himself or must he protect Greg’s other Rabobank rider, L.L. Sanchez.  Everybody knows that Ladies Love Cool Sanch and no more was that the case than when he won this race in 2009.  L.L. is the Spanish time trial champ and needs to prove his worth at Rabobank.  I said it before, if he does not do well here, his season may be a bust before it begins.  As for Greg’s last rider, you know that Thomas Voekler is going to create some action.  Maybe a stage win?  Small points, but they can add up.  Anyway, Greg has a lot to watch.
Patrick:  Although Patrick has one of the stronger teams at the Strade, the same cannot be said for Paris Nice.  Rigoberto Uran is Pat’s best chance at GC contention.  However, he will most certainly be riding in protection of Wiggins.  However, it is of note that originally it looked as though Sky would be racing for Froome.  He is out sick so maybe, just maybe they let Uran give it a go.  Nick Nuyens is here, but I really don’t see how he can be a big factor, probably just looking to get in shape for the cobbles or lead out Haedo.  Speaking of lead outs Patrick has the one of the few riders who could contest some of the sprint and stage points, Tom Boonen.  His form has been amazing so far and I put nothing past this guy.  Yet, all signs point to a quiet Paris Nice for Patrick.  No worries you are stacked for Tirreno Adriatico which starts mid-week.
Luke: I am very excited for my team at this race.  The little prince makes his Team Wiskota debut.  I don’t expect much with all the time trialing.  However, he could go for a stage and get me some points there.  Alejandro Valverde will also make his debut as he looks to improve on his past podium placements at Paris Nice.  The time trailing does nit suit him either, however it cannot be denied that past experience often brings present results.  Besides Ballaverde (the Green Bullet) has shown some serious form already this year.  My real GC hopes lie in lil Levi Leipheimer.  I have been down on him in the past, but I think the new team and his expertise at TT’s will help him win this thing.  We only have to remember back to Colorado last summer to see Levi’s abilities in an uphill TT.  All in all, I feel I have the most exciting team at Paris Nice.
Mike: Mikey may sneak in here and get some stage points by bringing the best sprinter in the group Thor to the party.  Without Evans to watch after Thor may be allowed to do a little stage hunting and that could net Mike some early points.  Mike’s real hopes should be focused on his GC contender Frank Schleck.  The better of the two Schlecks, if you ask me, will be a protected rider come Sunday.  He has shown that he is able to get it up for races besides le tour and I like his chances to do well.  Can he deal with the time trialing to maybe hold on to a podium spot?  We’ll see.
Bill: The neo pro comes into the race for the sun stacked.  Bill has four riders who are all in contention for the overall victory.  Too bad Froome got sick or Bill would have five GC riders.  Andy Schleck, well, I guess he’s a favorite for GC.  I have never seen him race in anything that is not le Tour.  I think he will ride for his teammates, even though you don’t see that often either. To be somewhat fair I saw Andy lead out Cancellera at the tour of Oman earlier this season.  Pretty weak lead out, but still it was the first time I have ever seen him give an effort like that for a teammate.  Andreas Kloden may be the sneaky GC pick here.  He has done well here before.  A strong time trialer with a strong team, Kloden may have a chance here.  Bill also brings last year’s winner in Tony Martin.  Martin comes with a strong team and has done well in the less than epic mountains of Paris Nice.  The opening TT has a bit of a lump in the middle but Martin is still my favorite to win every TT this year.   I should have qualified that, I mean all regular TTs not mountain TTs.  I think Martin will do well on the final TT but not as well as Bill’s first round pick, Bradley Wiggins.   Wiggo the twiggo seems pretty suited for this race.  He is an exceptional TT guy and has shown he can climb with the best.  If Wiggins can get some early season points for Bill I may have to eat my words on just how much of a reach was Wiggins.  I think he will be in a battle with Levi for the final TT win making the last day of Paris Nice very exciting. 
Wiskota Fantasy Podium Prediction:  Leipheimer, Wiggins, Martin
Spoilers: Van Garderen, Menchov, Brachovic, Taaramae

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