On the Rivet

A look at who's riding hard this weekend.

Ronde van Vlaanderen

Here we go.  Better bump Palm Sunday mass up to Saturday night cause Sunday is for one thing: the cobbles.  Holy week kicks off with possibly the coolest race in the world.  160 miles through the Flanders region of Belgium.  Cobbles and Bergs, Cobbles and Bergs, Cobbles and Bergs!  I can’t say I am well versed enough to know all of the important climbs, but I do know watching riders struggle up them is awesome.  The Ronde is like the Superbowl in Belgium, except no one is watching for the commercials; and nachos and wings are replaced by waffles and frites.  We’ll be putting our Belgian culinary skills to the test Sunday morning, hope to see you there.  Race coverage begins at 7:30 am with live coverage for the first time in US history.  That’s right, history will be made…on my couch.  And of course, in the race as well.  Even though none of us have George Hincapie we will be routing for him to finish strong.  If Big George can cross that finish line Sunday it will be for a record 17^th time. 

This is a race we don’t really need any extra motivation to enjoy, but we must remember that this is a Monument and thus is worth a whole lotta points.  So, who do we have racing? Who are the favorites?

I usually have to start with the favorite and it seems like I always have to start with Patrick.  Well, this race has been billed as Boonen vs. Cancellera and Pat would be fine with that as he has them both.  Both of these guys have won here before (Boonen ’05 and ’06, Cancellera 2010).   Cancellera has repeatedly looked like the strongest rider in every race that he has entered.  His win at Strade Bianchi showed that he can still ride away from the group and his second place at Milan San Remo showed that he can make the break and then make the break succeed.  What can we say about Boonen?  Tommeke has been dominant.  The double victory last week vaulted him into the top 5 for UCI points.  Wins or high placements during holy week could seal a high UCI points finish before April is even over.  Boonen doesn’t have the power of Cancellera (who does?) but he showed at Gent that he has the race knowledge and savvy that often ends up winning you more races.   Look for Tornado Tom to touch down in Flanders this Sunday as he has to be the favorite.  It doesn’t seem fair that team Volpe has another card to play but Patrick loves his cobbles and thus a classics heavy team.  Edvald Boassen Hagen seems like he could be a man for this kind of race.  No high placements to speak of but, according to the Sky website race photo, Eddie is their most protected rider.  He has a strong team but I still think this is going to be an off year for the “other” big Norwegian.  It’s not the nicest thing to say, but it’s good for us that defending champ Nick Nuyens got hurt as there will already be few points left after Team Volpe cleans house.

Not one to be modest about my team, I am going to go ahead and pick Team Wiskota Dynamic as the second overall favorite for Sunday.  Greipel will probably not be a factor, but he is there so who knows.  Farrar was picked for Team Wiskota to not just win sprints but get me some high classics finishes.  His form has not looked so good, but he has finished as high as 5^th here before.  Will he take it all?  Probably not.  What I’m hoping for is that he survives to the finish with the second or third group and wins that sprint getting me a top ten finish.  It kind of seems like everybody has forgotten about Team Wiskota’s resident master of the cobble, one Juan Antonio Flecha.  Still the coolest name in the peloton (although I am warming to the name Oscar Gatto) Flecha is pretty consistent on the pave.  He hurt his hand but he has been hitting the “turbo” and rehabbing for this week.  He is better suited for Paris Roubaix but, I still think he has a chance to become the coolest name to win the Ronde since Peter Van Petegem.  Team Wiskota Dynamic does have one guy who could, just maybe, challenge Boonen and Cancellera.  Right now Peter Sagan looks like he can do anything.  A close second to Boonen at Gent and a tough Milan San Remo have put Sagan on the map as a man for the classics.  The tons of hype surrounding Sagan in Flanders has been tempered by a release from Liquigas saying he is racing for “experience”.  Will the new finishing circuit neutralize the experience of the veterans of the peloton?  Can Sagan stay with the big boys?  Honestly, I don’t see why not.

Gregario Forza has Gilbert, we all know that.  We also all know Gilbert dominated last year in the Ardennes.  But did you know that he has podiumed twice at the Ronde, with a top ten last year?  Are we really fooled by this early season form?  Tooth infection? Fever? I don’t know, I think he might be pulling a bit of a Kaiser Soze.  “The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist”.  As for Gregario’s other rider, Voekler, I really don’t know anything about his cobbles prowess.  Researching him, the only new info I learned was that he once raced against a horse, so there’s that. 

 I don’t know what to say about Mike’s team.  Matt Goss has been weirdly quiet this year.  This doesn’t seem like it should be his race but maybe Greenedge has something up there sleeve.  Thor is much better suited for Roubaix compared to the Ronde.  However, as I alluded to earlier, cobbled experience is indispensable and Thor has this in spades.

Poor Bill, no riders in the coolest race of the season.  It’s still a fun race to watch even if you don’t have a rider.  However, the Commish has decided to take mercy on Bill the Neo Pro and bequeath him one extra rider during holy week, picked at random.  This rider is Gorka Izagirre of team Euskatel Euskadi.  Okay maybe it wasn’t so random. Remember it’s not Gorka Verdugo or Ion Izagirre or the other dude named Gorka on Euskatel, but Gorka Izagirre.  Go Gorka!

Wiskota Fantasy Podium: Boonen, Cancellera, Sagan

Spoilers: Ballan, Chavanel, Iglinsky, Breschel, Sep, Stijn, Leukemans

This is a long post already but the Ronde deserves more than just a fantasy podium list and a spoilers list.  Here is how it might play out and how else it might play out. 

Scenario 1

How it will go down:  Cancellera takes off before the circuit and Boonen manages to catch his wheel.   They do a soon to become legendary three laps with Cancellera attacking again and again.  The Peterberg proves to be less selective than the Muur and Boonen stays with him and pips him on the line for his third Ronde title.  A second group of a dozen riders come in over a minute back and Sagan takes the sprint.

Scenario 2:

How it might go down:  Cancellera and Boonen are marked men.  After a very early breakaway is caught the peloton, consisting of about half the starting riders, makes it to the circuit pretty much in tack.  They ramp it up but still there are several riders in the lead group.  I’m thinking, Boonen, Cancellera, Sagan, Flecha, Ballan, Leukamans and Sep.  Boonen wins this scenario as well, but Cancellera has a hard time podiuming.

Scenario 3:

How it probably won’t go down:  Garmin and BMC spend the first half of the race trying to get in a break.  They eventually succeed and Quickstep sends Chavanel to sit on the wheel.  The pace is too high and Cancellera’s domestiques (if he ever had any) disappear.  He must pull the group back himself.  Boonen sits on his wheel.  Cancellera finally brings the group back but, wait, someone is missing.  Chavanel sneaks off the front before they are caught.  The Peloton continues to mark Boonen (who doesn’t want to catch his teammate) and Cancellera (who already used too much energy) and Chavanel solos to victory.